My favorite Real Estate Stats from Arizona Multiple Listing Service. The facts and trends created by the Realtors out there working the field. No spin here!
Sales continue to be hot, even taking into consideration the fact that we are in the high season. MLS sales volume for the first three months of 2017 was 11.54% higher than 2016. There were 21,483 sales reported in Q1 2017 compared to 19,261 for the first quarter of 2016. Looking at public record resale sales volume in Maricopa County for the first quarter of 2017, we see that it was the third highest volume in the 19 years we’ve reported data. Only the peak bubble years of 2005 and 2006 had higher resale sales volume. A cool top and a smoking hot bottom doesn’t just describe my upcoming summer wardrobe, it’s also an apt description of the current state of our resale housing market. This month in STAT we take a closer look at our feverish bottom price ranges. Contract ratios were created by Michael Orr of the Cromford Report as a means to communicate the relationship between supply and demand in a given market area. Cromford translates the contract ratio as: 0-20 is Cool, 21-40 is Warm, 41-74 is Warmer, 75-99 is Hot and 100+ is a FRENZY!
The next map below shows the contract ratio by ZIP code for the frenzied markets in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. The contract ratio is calculated by dividing the number of homes under contract by the number of active listings. The map below also identifies the areas where the contract ratio is greater than 100, meaning the number of homes under contract is greater than the number of active listings. An example would be 85033 where currently there are 108 homes under contract and 73 active listings leaving a contract ratio of 147. Also displayed are the frenzied ZIP codes, not to be confused with the friend zone. 8 ARMLS STAT MARCH 2017 The common thread for the hottest of the hot sectors of our market is price point.
With insufficient supply and strong demand from entry level buyers, I see no relief in sight. We are just now seeing the beginning ground swell of millennial buyers. Couple a large population base of looming buyers with a median new build price of $320,000 and I see little to no immediate relief of added inventory for homes priced below $300,000. Home prices in these areas will continue to rise as will our overall median sales price. Properties listed in these areas and price points find the selling agents confident and the buying agents frantic
The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPI) Last month STAT projected a median sales price for March of $229,000. The actual median sales price was $230,000, $1,000 higher than the $229,000 projected by our mathematical model. In 2016 our mathematical projections tended to be lower than the actual results for most of the year, it appears our model is following a similar path in 2017. Looking ahead to April, the ARMLS Pending Price Index projects a median sales price of $233,000. With limited supply and steady demand, particularly at the lower price points, I fully expect the median in April to exceed March. MLS sales volume in March was 9,116 or 8.4% higher than the total of 8,412 last year, accounting for 166 more sales than our projected total of 8,950. Sales volume for the first three months of 2017 is 11.54% higher than 2017, with 21,483 sales in 2017 compared to 19,261 in the first quarter of 2016. We begin April with 7,616 pending contracts, 4,629 UCB listings and 544 CCBS giving us a total of 12,789 residential listings practically under contract. This com- 9 ARMLS STAT MARCH 2017 pares to 12,545 of the same type of listings at this time last year suggesting the sales volume in April 2017 will surpass the 8,293 of April 2016. STAT is projecting 8,800 sales in April. Note, there were 21 business days in 2016 and only 20 business days this year.
For all the figures and insight continue to read http://armls.com/docs/STAT-MARCH-2017.pdf
I hope you enjoy these facts as much as I do .
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