I have no idea where January went and now coming up to the third week in February. Here is a recap of the real figures and happenings in the Arizona Real estate market foe January which gives you the information to formulate your own opinion of where this market is going or could go
COMMENTARY by Tom Ruff
It must be February and real the Valley know what that means. Their selling season has begun. This is the time of year when listings under contract increase daily and set up sales volume for March, April, May and June. four months accounted for nearly 40% of all sales. So look in the mirror and repeat after Stuart Smalley, enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!” It’s go time folks.
We begin February with 17,330 active listings not under contract, 14.8% fewer than the 2017. Low inventory and steady demand means prices will continue to rise. In January we saw year-over-year sales volume and an 8.9% increase in the year-over-year median sales price. But low inventory numbers only tell half the story. To get the full story, we need a break down by price point. Sellers control the lower ranges while buyers have an abundance of choices at the top of the market. In January of 2017 ARMLS subscribers reported $1,668,131,788 in sales volume. This year saw $1,917,861,388 in sales volume, the volume for January in the history of ARMLS. We never discuss commission rates, but the total which those commissions are based was 15% higher this year over 2017.
As our new year starts to unfold, we’re entertaining two divergent theories as to what 2018 holds in its cards. There are two lines of thought:
1) Low inventory numbers will lead to higher prices and the higher prices, coupled with r will restrict demand and 2018 will see fewer sales than 2017.
2) Millennials, the driving force behind our market, are one year older and their appetites purchase is increasing. That, coupled with an improving economy, will lead to increased sales in 2018
Eventually the first proposition will play out. Tight supply will lead to an increase in prices, these higher prices will cool demand, lower demand will mean more supply and more supply means lower prices .The question is when? Exactly when will likely be determined by the strength of our local economy.
Channeling our inner Stuart Smalley, January STAT is going to be a big glass of Kool Aid possibly providing marketing material for your clients. To Read More C:\Users\Maureen\Desktop\Homebuyer Sentiment.docx january.docxJanuary Stats Continued
If its your pleasure to interpret the scales and graphs as well, please feel free to click on C:\Users\Maureen\Desktop\january 2018.docx
Be sure to call if you have any questions about this report or about how the market is performing. Would you like to know what is happening in your neighborhood? Would you like to know the value of your home? Do you need help deciding whether to sell or not or would you like to know if now is the right time to buy?